Trump solves a big bit of the Hong Kong crisis

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-50581862

Human rights & democracy in Hong Kong

US tariffs will rise on Chinese goods if conditions are not met for Hong Kong independence, according to a known set of requirements that will be considered annually with a formal process. Everyone exporting from China will have a chance to think about this in advance and Chinese dictators know this; they're thinking about the same thing. You can tell because they have issued very rude statements and are trying to retaliate in ways that don't matter for such a vital issue. They will stop US navy ships using Chinese ports. Maybe they will put tariffs on US goods. Or not send a christmas card. Whatever they do will not matter as much as human rights and democracy. Even if you don't think about human rights and democracy in Hong Kong, it's useful to stop the spread of dictatorship from the country where so much economic activity takes place; what happens to hong kongers will spread to the rest of us.

This is something so blindingly obvious that only an economist or a foreign office expert could quibble. If the Chinese government wants to do something bad, there is no way that any other trading block of government can stop it, but adding a tariff is easy and doing it with well-known polite and clear rules set in advance is the best way, and might even work. It makes a bit of money in tariff payments too.

fashion manufacturing in Bangladesh - similar point

If the government of Bangladesh wants to introduce national insurance and benefits to people who don't contribute, the population there will stop growing so fast .Girls will stay a little longer at school. The chances of a baby surviving into adulthood will increase. The fear of growing old without children will decrease. All of this is vital to people in the UK who need fairer imports, less money spent on aid or wars, and less inward migration. And vital to people in Bangladesh as well, although it seems a bit rude for me in the UK to say how some country on the other side of the planet should be run.

If a government in Bangladesh wants to remain scared of being the second cheapest country next to Sri Lanka or Vietnam, there's very little it can do. The kind of people who run things in Bangladesh aren't very keen anyway, if I they are anything like ex-pats who come back from those countries and are used to doing very well by being rich amongst poor people. Why introduce national insurance when it would increase the cost of your servants? You might have to use a car wash or a washing machine. These people would react rather like the Chinese government if their exporters were forced to pay tariffs until the country met some set of standards for national insurance and benefits to people who don't contribute. They might do exactly the same set of rude things that don't matter compared to poverty and over-population.  

Even if you don't think about human rights and democracy in Hong Kong, it's useful to stop the spread of dictatorship from the country where so much economic activity takes place; what happens to Bangladeshis will spread to the rest of us.

At a lecture about Bangladesh, I asked an economist whether tariffs could be used to make national insurance possible in that country and charge a tariff if not. The lecturer was from London School of Economics which gets about the lowest satisfaction ratings from students of its Economics courses. That what posh economics courses are like. She disagreed and came back to the point at the end of the lecture, The quote was something like this:

"for me, it is for the people of Bangladesh whether they have national insurance, and not for the people of the UK"

Arse.

People in countries like the UK can help get national insurance into Bangladesh for our own sake and for Bangladeshis' sake. They have no more chance of doing on on their own than the people of Hong Kong have of standing up against China. If they don't do it. their goods will under-cut goods made with the costs of a welfare state and democracy built-in, from countries like the UK. That's how it works. That's the kind of thing that people called "economist" ought to know but don't.

Afterthought: Kurds

I wrote that last bit with a kind of tabloid confidence, but Trump has also done the opposite to Kurds in Syria, for reasons that not even a blogspot blogger can understand.